Monday, May 7, 2007

Undecided Market

Market sentiment


Booming M&A news moved the market to the upside, however the pressure of Wednesday's FOMC meeting regarding interest rate tempered the enthusiasm. On Thursday the ECB (European Central Bank) and the BoE (Bank of England) will announce the interest rates for the Euro and the Pound, respectively, adding in to the general anxiety. Will the market grow for much longer? Maybe we have a couple of interesting weeks left, but June will probably settle in a downside tone. We'll wait and see, but my view toward further bull fuel is somewhat reserved.


The DJIA tested the 13,300 level today. The market is still not closed, but I'm not seeing it pass the day's (and all-time for the mater) high. At least not today. However it's still well into positive ground (+36), in relation to this Monday's the opening value. The DJIA had a remarkable winning streak lately, ending on the positive for 26 days out of 29. An 80-year old record winning streak is in sight.


The commodities crude oil and gold are seeing an interesting decoupling as of late. Usually the price evolution of these two commodities is linked, but lately we have seen the crude oil go down and the gold go up. A weak dollar moved gold prices to all time highs, as investors "flee for safety", selling weak dollar and buying gold to hedge their investments.


Stocks I've traded


As you may probably know, the highly anticipated movie "Spiderman 3" hit the cinemas on Friday, earning an impressive box-office: $820 million worldwide. The company that owns the Spiderman franchise (together with X-men or the Incredible Hulk, along with other 5000 characters) is Marvell Enterprises (MVL). An interesting read I've found, explaining MVL's business model and why a high box office won't save the stock made me add it to my portfolio today. I have shorted the stock on $29.90, and bought it back at $29.60, adding in a 30$ profit. I trade in lots of 100 stocks, so a 1c price difference yields me a 1$ profit. For now. A higher buying power would allow me to buy 2,3 or 10 lots at a time, yielding higher profits but also potential higher losses.



Another stock in focus for me today was Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM). Gold price rose today, and so did the Philadelphia Exchange (Phlx) Gold Silver Index ($XAU). I've bought the stock at $36.03 and locked in profits at $36.55.


The biggest gainer I had in my porftolio today was, to my suprise, was Wendy's Restaurants (WEN). Unfortunately I have not followed the stock in much detail today, and made a late entry and early exit, locking in only a 30$ profit. As you can see in the chart, it could have yielded me a $300+ profit, should I have been more careful.





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